
If you have any tough lineup decisions this week involving QBs or pass catchers from the Texans or Browns, you might be better off going with your other options.
Forecasts for the 1:00 PM ET tilt in Cleveland call for temps in the mid-30s with winds around 11 mph and a slight chance of rain. While that sort of weather won't make throwing impossible, it certainly could affect the passing attacks of both clubs. If the winds kick up, each team could opt to play it safe by keeping the ball on the ground.
Neither Brady Quinn nor Sage Rosenfels was a great fantasy option anyway, but this puts an even bigger damper on their prospects for this week. Only use them if you absolutely have to. On the other hand, Jamal Lewis and Steve Slaton should get a lot of work and definitely should be in lineups. Even Ahman Green could have some starting value in deeper leagues.
Other games that could be affected by cold weather include Eagles-Ravens and Bills-Chiefs, though neither of those contests are likely to see any sort of rain, just low temps. It's probably not worth tinkering with any guys from these four teams.
Well, the bye weeks are over, and chances are, if you're still reading this blog, you've survived. And yet the desperation has not ended. The injuries are ubiquitous and the stakes are exceptionally high.
Again, I am aiming for largely available players on your waiver wire who you could feasibly plug into your lineup on Sunday if for whatever reason you're missing multiple players. So let's get at it for Week 12, when we will be without Steven Jackson and perhaps Reggie Bush, Brian Westbrook, Plaxico Burress and Kellen Winslow, among a host of other important fantasy commodities:
Bucs QB Jeff Garcia @ DET: The Lions have played 10 games this season, and in six of them, the opposing quarterback has posted multiple TDs. And we're not talking about Peyton Manning and Drew Brees here, folks. More like J.T. O'Sullivan, Matt Schaub, David Garrard, and the formidable Kyle Orton/Rex Grossman two-headed monster. Garcia, who posted 316 yards and two TDs in a meeting with the Lions a year ago, will also not be able to lean on Earnest Graham, who is done for the season.
Alternative option: Bears QB Kyle Orton @ STL
Bills RB Fred Jackson @ KC: Last week in this spot I gave you Pierre Thomas as the next backup RB to submit starter-level contributions against that swiss-cheese Chiefs' run defense. How'd that workout? Thomas busted out for 144 total yards and a score against the fantasy-friendliest run defense in the NFL, and now comes Jackson's turn behind Marshawn Lynch. He will join a long list of backups who the Chiefs have made look like Pro Bowlers, one that also includes Leon Washington, LenDale White, Jonathan Stewart, Jerious Norwood and Michael Bush.
Alternative option: Giants RB Derrick Ward @ ARI
Giants WR Steve Smith @ ARI: I don't mean to pick on the Cardinals, but heck, the numbers don't lie. Arizona has allowed more WR touchdowns (14) than any team in the NFL, and they've particularly struggled against the smaller, quicker types such as Santana Moss (7-75-1), Laveranues Coles (8-105-3), Lee Evans (2-100-1), and Carolina's Steve Smith (5-117-2). Smith may even see a larger share of the pie if Plax misses time with a hamstring problem that kept him out of practice this week.
Alternative option: Redskins WR Antwaan Randle El @ SEA
Giants TE Kevin Boss @ ARI: Prior to last week, Boss had scored in three straight games, catching the attention of fantasy owners, but he was quickly discarded after a goose egg in Week 11. Still, TE teammate Darcy Johnson caught a TD last week, making it four straight games in which Eli has found a TE in the end zone. You have to like that red-zone trend, especially with the Cardinals having recently ceded a score to TE Vernon Davis and five targets to TE John Carlson last week.
Alternative option: Browns TE Steve Heiden vs. HOU
The list of injured RBs for Week 12 reads like a who's who of fantasy studs, a fact that will provide more than a few of us with a couple sleepless nights this weekend. Here's a brief rundown of all the backfield bruises that have left a littany of talented backs iffy for Sunday's action:
Clinton Portis: Technically questionable, he is more like probable for the 4:15 kickoff despite barely practicing at all this week.
Brandon Jacobs: One of three NFL leaders with 11 TDs, Jacobs appears set to shake off a knee injury and is listed as probable.
Steve Slaton: Limited all week in practice, the surprise rook has a chest injury and general soreness but is not expected to miss a tasty matchup vs. CLE.
Brian Westbrook: As if the Ravens' D wasn't disconcerting enough for the slumping stud, Westbrook is a game-time decision as Uncle Buck prepares as his understudy yet again.
LenDale White: White (calf) shares the league lead with Jacobs and is as likely to play too. He returned to practice Thursday and Friday and sounds like a sure thing to suit up.
Reggie Bush: Bush came through Thursday's workout fine and had a planned day of rest on Friday. He's officially questionable, and Saturday's workout will determine his status for Monday night. Tough to roll the dice on him for MNF though.
Steven Jackson: Um, no.
Darren McFadden: Only three carries in Week 11, but McFadden practiced extensively this week and draws the lowly Broncos defense this Sunday.
Stay tuned to this blog on Sunday morning for breaking news and confirmation on all of the above.
Not enough credit was given to Redskins RB Clinton Portis for playing with a sprained MCL in his knee last week. Despite not practicing for two straight weeks (including the bye), he still suited up for a huge game against the Cowboys. It wasn't Portis' best performance — 15 carries for 68 yards — but just having their offensive star on the field was key to the 'Skins almost pulling out the win.
Now, I know guys have played through much worse injuries before, but in this day and age, doing what Portis did is more the exception than the rule. From my experience tracking players' injury status, most skill players who miss an entire week's worth of practice and are considered "very questionable" wind up missing the game. And it's especially rare to see anybody play with a damaged knee ligament. Usually, much lesser ailments (a bruised thigh, anyone?) can keep guys out for multiple weeks.
Unfortunately for Portis' fantasy owners, the fact that he played on Sunday night meant that most people had to go with other options last week. But the good news is that the NFL's second-leading rusher, despite still having soreness in his knee, says he has no plans to miss any games going forward.
Owners of Portis should feel lucky to have a guy they know they can rely on week-in and week-out. We fantasy freaks would have a lot less headaches if there were more players that followed this example.
Warrick Dunn hasn't really been an exciting fantasy player for a couple years now, but that could change in the final six weeks of this season. That's because RB Earnest Graham is expected to miss the rest of '08 with an ankle injury, putting Dunn squarely in the driver's seat in Tampa Bay's backfield.
Dunn, likely a free agent in many leagues, could be a difference maker for your team down the stretch, especially if you're an owner of someone like the injured Steven Jackson. Even in limited duty, Dunn has not been bad at all this season, averaging 4.4 yards per carry and racking up 26 catches for 207 yards. His 683 yards from scrimmage has him on pace for a solid 1,093 for the year. About the only thing he probably won't give you is TDs, and he may even get more scoring opportunities now that he's the featured back.
With games still left against porous rush defenses like the Lions, Saints, Falcons and Raiders, the 33-year-old back could be in store for a big finish. And don't worry about the imminent return of RB Cadillac Williams — he's not going to be healthy enough to steal many carries at this point. The contending Bucs will want their most reliable players in there, and Dunn is by far the most dependable back they have left.
Every year we see unexpected guys make a surprise impact during the fantasy playoffs, and I think Dunn has a good chance to do just that this year. Just make sure you grab him before he goes off at Detroit on Sunday.
Here are the injury updates for Sunday's late action:
Here are the injury updates for Sunday's early action:
Well, the bye weeks are over, and chances are, if you're still reading this blog, you've survived. And yet the desparation has not ended. The injuries are ubiquitous and the stakes are exceptionally high.
Again, I am aiming for largely available players on your waiver wire who you could feasibly plug into your lineup on Sunday if for whatever reason you're missing multiple players. So let's get at it for Week 11, when we will be without Reggie Bush, likely Clinton Portis, and a host of other important fantasy commodities:
Seahawks QB Matt Hasselbeck vs. ARI: So what if Hasselbeck has been out since Week Five. According to his coach Mike Holmgren, who knows a little something about QBs, his Pro Bowl passer had a solid week of practice. Furthermore, he's facing a Cardinals defense that has ceded nine passing scores in its last four games, including 217 yards and two money balls to Shaun Hill, of all people, a week ago.
Alternative option: Chiefs QB Tyler Thigpen vs. NOR
Saints RB Pierre Thomas @ KC: We know that Reggie Bush is out. We also know that the Chiefs are dead last in rushing defense and has already been torched not only by opposing starters, but also by their backups, such as Leon Washington (100 total yards, two TDs), LenDale White (149 yards, three TDs), Jonathan Stewart (72 rushing yards), and Michael Bush (90 rushing yards, one TD). Thomas will backup Deuce, but both backs should be loose against the Chiefs.
Cowboys WR Roy Williams @ WAS: Williams has all of three catches in three games with the Cowboys, but don't underestime the fact that Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger were about as effective as the sorry QB lot Williams had to contend with in Detroit. This week, Tony Romo returns to bolster the entire Dallas offense. The fact that Williams has had an extra week off to digest the playbook won't hurt his chances.
Second alternative: Panthers WR Muhsin Muhammad vs. DET
Steelers TE Matt Spaeth: With Heath Miller out in Week 10, stand-in Spaeth posted five catches and 62 yards against one of the top pass defenses in the NFL. This week, Miller remains out, and Spaeth draws a defense that has been downright hospitable for opposing TEs. They have ceded a total of 707 yards and eight TDs to the position, both of which are by far league highs. Don't think Sparth has the pedigree? Did Mark Campbell (2-14-1), Billy Miller (7-82) and Robert Royal (4-53)?
Second alternative: Broncos TE Daniel Graham vs. ATL
It used to be that the Steelers were one of the easier teams for fantasy owners to peg.
Not anymore.
Willie Parker is expected to play when the Steelers take on the Chargers this week, but he'll be wearing a protective brace on his shoulder and is likely to share carries with Mewelde Moore. It will be fascinating to see how big a slice of the pie each guy gets. And I have to wonder: Would Parker be getting a significantly larger share if he were completely healthy?
Moore is no slouch. He may be pretty good, in fact. I'm a big advocate of the yards-per-carry stat as a leading indicator of a running back's effectiveness (taking the quality of a running back's offensive line into consideration, of course), and Moore's YPC numbers are impressive. He's averaging 4.1 yards per carry this season -- as opposed to 3.8 for Parker -- and has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over his career. Moore has scored six TDs this season, and he's good at catching the ball. Is it possible that a changing of the guard is at hand? And how does the Steelers' running game shake out next year when a healthy Rashard Mendenhall is back in the mix?
And while we're asking questions, here's another: What's up with Big Ben? Roethlisberger has looked awful lately. He seems to have no pass-rush awareness whatsoever these days. Of course, it doesn't help that the Steelers' offensive line has degenerated during Roethlisberger's tenure from an elite or near-elite unit to a ... well, this is a family blog, so I can't use some of the adjectives that come to mind. Still, Roethlisberger has stunk out loud over his last three games, to the tune of a 1-to-8 TD/INT ratio. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin not so subtly suggested that Roethlisberger needed to spend more time practicing, sore shoulder or not, and Roethlisberger reportedly responded by practicing throughout the week.
For the time being, I would find it hard to put Roethlisberger in my fantasy lineup if it were an option. He's getting thumped around too much by opposing defenses, and he just doesn't seem to be himself, possibly because of the shoulder. (Or maybe getting constantly whacked by 300-pounders will leave a man gun-shy.)
As for WR Santonio Holmes ... so much promise, such disappointing results so far. I thought Holmes had a good chance to be a top-15 receiver this season, but he hasn't played well enough to be an every-week fantasy starter. And with Roethlisberger struggling, Holmes' breakout season (if one is indeed coming) will have to wait.
When RB Tatum Bell was cut by the Lions prior to this season — which led to the infamous Rudi Johnson baggage stealing incident — I thought there was absolutely zero chance he'd be playing in the NFL again in 2008. After all, in his five appearances (all starts) last year in Detroit, Bell ran for a whopping 36.4 yards per game and scored just once. However, you can never say never in the NFL.
With the Broncos' backfield decimated beyond belief with injuries, the team turned this week to one of the few available backs out there that knew their system — Bell. Finding him managing a cell phone store in a Colorado mall, Denver signed the guy that ran for 2,342 yards for them from 2004-06, scoring 13 TDs and averaging 4.9 yards per carry.
And what might be the most amazing part is that Bell could be thrust onto the field as soon as Sunday at Atlanta. With Selvin Young likely to be sidelined with a groin injury, rookie FB Peyton Hillis is Denver's only healthy back, and he isn't expected to handle a full workload. That means Bell, who has been out of football since August, could be in line for double-digit touches against a suspect Falcons defense.
As hard as it might be to believe, Bell has landed in a situation where he could have some fantasy value before the season is said and done. I'm still not convinced this will be the case, but it's certainly possible that he'll have a role in the Broncos' offense if Young remains out. And while I wouldn't run to pick the guy up just yet, he is someone to keep an eye on this weekend.
We've already seen at least two players seemingly come back from the dead to be fantasy assets this year in Mark Bradley and Cedric Benson. If Bell makes it a third, then Hell will officially have frozen over.
You've heard me praise the strategy of handcuffing your top fantasy back with his second-stringer to insure yourself some protection in the case of significant injury. Sadly, the runner who ranks second in the NFL in rushing is very iffy for Week 11, and Clinton Portis owners may have little option behind him on the Redskins' roster.
In 2006, Portis missed eight games, and backup Ladell Betts broke out with a career-high 1,154 rushing yards, 445 receiving yards, and five total touchdowns. Unforunately, Betts himself is questionable for Week 11 and is only slightly more likely to play than Portis.
Behind him is former MVP fantasy stud Shaun Alexander. It's nostalgic to recall his 28-touchdown season of 2005. But then you notice his lofty 2.3 yards per carry as a Redskin and realize he's a shadow of his former self who would almost certainly need help from pedestrian special-teamer Rock Cartwright, who hasn't scored since 2005.
As a Portis owner myself, I've pretty much written off the Redskins RB for this week. However, I'm investing in Betts long term because I feel (based on 2006) that he's the only Redskin backup capable of doing anything noteworthy for my fantasy team if given Portis' full workload.
But the bottom line for Week 11: With a Sunday night kickoff between Washington and Dallas, you likely will have no idea if Portis (or even Betts) is active until long after all your backup options are gone. And at that point, you'll be none too happy to be forced to use Rock Cartwright with your Week 11 on the line. It's best to begin making plans to be without Portis on Sunday.
For the remainder of the season, we NFL addicts will have the luxury of at least one Thursday night, prime-time affair -- not to mention the thrill of three tilts on Turkey Day. On the flip side of that welcome respite from the work-week doldrums is the frightful realization that it often makes fantasy lineup decisions that much more difficult.
Take, for example, the following situation: You've got two options for your flex spot, WR Wes Welker and RB Willie Parker. On the surface, you like Parker's matchup against San Diego a bit better than Welker's vs. NYJ, and you're encouraged by Tuesday's news that he's expected to return to the lineup. However, you've been burned more than once with Fast Willie this season, what with his stepping in holes in practice and sudden shoulder injuries. And by the time Parker's status is confirmed on Sunday afternoon, Welker will have played three days earlier on Thursday night.
Sure, if you're talking about Clinton Portis versus Leon Washington this week, it pays to hold off for the upside of one of the game's best players. But if your decision is a coin flip, you're almost obligated to play it safe with the sure thing.
Another under-appreciated strategy is to be sure you've slotted that question mark (take Parker again for example) in your flex spot, as opposed to a RB position. That way, if you are faced with a surprise inactive, you're not limited to a RB to replace him.
As I've discussed throughout the season, it's been a rough year for many of the league's top tight ends, leading lots of fantasy owners to get little production from that spot in their lineup. But finally, in Week 10, a bunch of TEs broke out with their best games of '08.
Probably the guy owners are most happy to see come around is Kellen Winslow. Between a staph infection that sidelined him and overall poor play, Winslow was looking like a fantasy bust. But last Thursday, in QB Brady Quinn's first start, Winslow had a monster effort, catching 10 passes for 111 yards and two TDs. With Quinn under center for the remainder of the season, expect a big second half from the Browns' TE.
The other guy who finally made an impact was Todd Heap, who had 58 yards and two TDs on Sunday — his first two scores of the year. Most of his owners likely gave up on him prior to that outing, and they probably shouldn't be in a rush to pick the TE back up. Until the Ravens prove that they are going to let Heap run routes (and not stay in and block) on a consistent basis, I'm not convinced that he is going to repeat this performance anytime soon.
To a lesser extent, guys like Kevin Boss (6-69-1), Dustin Keller (6-107-1) and Bo Scaife (10-78-1) all had their best fantasy outings of the season, and Tony Scheffler came back from an injury with a 4-92 effort. Each of those TEs could be nice performers heading down the stretch.
Lastly, an old reliable like Tony Gonzalez (10-113-2) delivered in a big way, and top fantasy picks Antonio Gates (8-66-1) and Dallas Clark (3-24-1) were able to find paydirt again. They've been a few of the rare bright spots at the position thus far.
I'm not saying that tight ends are all of a sudden going to be stat machines, but maybe we can at least bank on them to come through with more than a handful of points in these crucial upcoming weeks.
Here are the injury updates for Sunday's late action:
Here are the injury updates for Sunday's early action:


